Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
